Identifying and predicting the effects of climate variability on malaria incidence in Botswana : an application on DEMETER project
Simon MasonInternational Research Institute of Climate Prediction
Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
Friday, Jun 17, 11:00 CERFACS Conference Room
Malaria control has become a priority for the international health community and is the focus of several goal-oriented initiatives including the Roll Back Malaria partnership, the Millennium Development Goals and the Abuja targets. Included in these initiatives are specific targets for the early detection and control of epidemics. Inter-annual climate fluctuations are a major determinant of malaria transmission in epidemic-prone parts of Africa, including in Botswana, where unusually high-quality records of malaria incidence are available. The influence of climate variability on malaria incidence in this part of southern Africa is assessed, and a strong relationship is indicated, which provides a basis for early-warning based on monitoring of climate. Given this relationship, skillful seasonal climate forecasts may offer early warning of changes in epidemic risk. The ability of the DEMETER prediction system forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence is assessed. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, adding up to four months lead time over observed precipitation without a substantial loss in probabilistic prediction skill.
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