Climate variability and predictability
Weather or climate? Short lived entities such as synoptic events at midlatitudes, extreme events
(heatwaves, cold surges etc.), were traditionally treated as weather structures and were analysed
by meteorologists. Fluctuations beyond monthly-to-seasonal timescale were more likely labelled
as climate and were analyzed by climatologists. It clearly appears today that this distinction
is sometimes artificial and could be even detrimental to progress in some specific areas (e.g.
monthly to seasonal prediction, climate changes etc.). The weather/climate system exhibits
considerable variability on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Those are characterized
by a strong interaction that must be taken into account to better understand and predict the
atmosphere from daily variability to climate change. Interest in weather/climate fluctuations
have been rapidly growing over the last few years following the recent recurrence of extremes and
the more pressing evidence for anthropogenic influences on climate. In such a context covering
a large spatio-temporal spectrum, demand for predictability of weather/climate variability
logically emerged from the decision-makers sphere.
The activities of the “Climate variability and predictability” project directly take place within
this framework. Based on a process-oriented approach, our goal is to better understand the
physical origin of the low-frequency variability of the climate system and its interaction with
weather-type events, with the ultimate hope to improve their prediction over a wide range of
timescale. Based on our past experience, it appears that predictability and predictive skill
measures need to be addressed with a systematic mechanistic approach of the variability. A
long-range forecast, whatever its skill, is of scientifical value if we know how and why we
can forecast. We combine such a theoretical approach of the weather/climate variability to its
application in participating to the M´et´eo-France seasonal forecast committee (monthly climate
bulletin and public briefing etc.).
This project is included in the international CLIVAR framework. This research is part of the
EC-FP6 project ENSEMBLES, coordinated by the UK Met.Office, and will be included in
the EC-FP7 COMBINE project (pending acceptance). It is tightly connected to the finishing
CHAMPION and ongoing ESCARCEL and IRCCAM ANR proposals.
(heatwaves, cold surges etc.), were traditionally treated as weather structures and were analysed
by meteorologists. Fluctuations beyond monthly-to-seasonal timescale were more likely labelled
as climate and were analyzed by climatologists. It clearly appears today that this distinction
is sometimes artificial and could be even detrimental to progress in some specific areas (e.g.
monthly to seasonal prediction, climate changes etc.). The weather/climate system exhibits
considerable variability on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Those are characterized
by a strong interaction that must be taken into account to better understand and predict the
atmosphere from daily variability to climate change. Interest in weather/climate fluctuations
have been rapidly growing over the last few years following the recent recurrence of extremes and
the more pressing evidence for anthropogenic influences on climate. In such a context covering
a large spatio-temporal spectrum, demand for predictability of weather/climate variability
logically emerged from the decision-makers sphere.
The activities of the “Climate variability and predictability” project directly take place within
this framework. Based on a process-oriented approach, our goal is to better understand the
physical origin of the low-frequency variability of the climate system and its interaction with
weather-type events, with the ultimate hope to improve their prediction over a wide range of
timescale. Based on our past experience, it appears that predictability and predictive skill
measures need to be addressed with a systematic mechanistic approach of the variability. A
long-range forecast, whatever its skill, is of scientifical value if we know how and why we
can forecast. We combine such a theoretical approach of the weather/climate variability to its
application in participating to the M´et´eo-France seasonal forecast committee (monthly climate
bulletin and public briefing etc.).
This project is included in the international CLIVAR framework. This research is part of the
EC-FP6 project ENSEMBLES, coordinated by the UK Met.Office, and will be included in
the EC-FP7 COMBINE project (pending acceptance). It is tightly connected to the finishing
CHAMPION and ongoing ESCARCEL and IRCCAM ANR proposals.
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