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Expériences de prévisions utilisant les conditions initiales issues du 3D-VAR

Summary of the global 3D-Var analyses

Forced Ensemble generation Strategy

Strategy in presence of ocean DA

Perturbing observations

3D-Var impact on the ensemble mean bias

Sea surface height spread

Nino 3 & Nino 4

Temperature ACC month 2-4

Temperature ACC month 2-4

Temperature ACC month 4-6

Temperature ACC month 4-6

Scores in extratropical regions: probabilistic prediction

Ranked Probability Score

Ranked Probability Score

Ranked Probability Skill Score

Temperature RPSS month 2-4

Temperature RPSS month 2-4

Temperature RPSS month 4-6

Temperature ROC scores month 2-4

Temperature ROC scores month 4-6

« Valeur Economique »

Temperature Value month 2-4 Northern Hemisphere

Temperature Value month 4-6 Northern Hemisphere

Temperature Value month 2-4 Europe

Temperature Value month 4-6 Europe

Conclusions provisoires