Publications

2023

Delhaye, S., R. Msadek, T. Fichefet, F. Massonnet, and L. Terray, Consistent but more intense atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in CMIP6 experiments compared to PAMIP experiments, submitted to Earth System Dynamics (ESD)

Trotechaud, S., B. Tremblay, J. Williams, J. Romanski, A. Romanou, M. Bushuk, W. Merryfield, and R. Msadek, Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations, submitted to Journal of Climate

Delhaye, S., Massonnet, F., Fichefet, T., Msadek, R., Terray, L. and Screen, J. A., 2023: Dominant role of early winter Barents–Kara sea ice extent anomalies in subsequent atmospheric circulation changes in CMIP6 models, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06904-6

Fortin, A-S., Dufour, C. O., Merlis, T. M. and Msadek, R., 2023: Geostrophic and Mesoscale Eddy Contributions to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline Under CO2 Increase in the GFDL CM2-O Model Suite, Journal of Climate, pp. 1-42, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0561.1

2022

Delhaye, S., Fichefet, T., Massonnet, F., Docquier, D., Msadek, R., Chripko, S., Roberts, C., Keeley, S. and Senan, R., 2022: Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat, Weather and Climate Dynamics, 3 (2), pp. 555-573, doi:10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022

Smith, D. M., Eade, R., Andrews, M. B., Ayres, H., Clark, A., Chripko, S., Deser, C., Dunstone, N., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gastineau, G., Graff, L. S., Hardiman, S. C., He, B., Hermanson, L., Jung, T., Knight, P. A., Knight, J., Levine, X., Magnusdottir, G., Manzini, E., Matei, D., Mori, M., Msadek, R., Ortega, P., Peings, Y., Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Seabrook, M., Semmler, T., Sigmond, M., Streffing, J., Sun, L. and Walsh, A., 2022: Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss, Nature Communications, 13 (1), pp. article number 727, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y

2021

Rousseau V., E. Sanchez-Gomez, and R. Msadek: Mechanisms shaping wind convergence under extreme synoptic situations above the Gulf Stream region, Journal of Climate, 9481–9500, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0719.1

Ruprich-Robert Y., E. Moreno-Chamarro, X. Levine, A. Bellucci, C. Cassou, F. Castruccio, J. Lopez-Parages, P.-A. Monerie, D. Nicolì, S. Qasmi, C. D. Roberts, E. Sanchez-Gomez, G. Danabasoglu, N. Dunstone, M. Martin-Rey, R. Msadek, J. Robson, D. Smith, and E. Tourigny. Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study. npj climate and atmospheric science, Springer Nature, 2021, 4 (1), doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00188-5

Chripko, S., R. Msadek, E. Sanchez-Gomez, L. Terray, L. Bessières, and M.-P. Moine, Impact of Reduced Arctic Sea Ice on Northern Hemisphere Climate and Weather in Autumn and Winter. Journal of Climate, 1-61, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20- 0515.s1.

Waldman R., J. Hirschi, A. Voldoire, C. Cassou, and R. Msadek : Clarifying the relation between AMOC and thermal wind: application to the centennial variability in a coupled climate model, Journal of Physical Oceanography, doi : https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0284.1

2020

Msadek, R., Garric, G., Fleury, S., Garnier, F., Batté, L. and Bushuk, M.: Prévoir les variations saisonnières de la glace de mer arctique et leurs impacts sur le climat, La Météorologie (111), pp. 24-33, doi:10.37053/lameteorologie-2020- 0089

2019

Bushuk M., X. Yang, M. Winton, R. Msadek, M. Harrison, A. Rosati, and R. Gudgel: The value of sustained ocean observations for sea-ice predictions in the Barents Sea, Journal of Climate, 32, 7017-7035. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1

Smith, D. M., J. A. Screen, C. Deser, J. Cohen, J.C. Fyfe, J. García-Serrano, T. Jung, V. Kattsov, D. Matei, R. Msadek, Y. Peings, M. Sigmond, J. Ukita, J.-H. Yoon, and X. Zhang, 2019: The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification, Geosci. Model Dev.,12, 1139–1164

Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A., Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M., Sénési, S., Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E., Geoffroy, O., Guérémy, J.-F., Moine, M.-P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Rocher, M., Roehrig, R., Salas-y-Mélia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Waldman, R., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Éthé, C., and Madec, G. : Evaluation of CNRM Earth- System model, CNRM-ESM2-1 : role of Earth system processes in present-day and future climate. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019MS001791

Voldoire, A., Saint-Martin, D., Sénési, S., Decharme, B., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., et al.: Evaluation of CMIP6 DECK experiments with CNRM-CM6- 1. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019MS001683

Castruccio, F.S., Y. Ruprich-Robert, S.G. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, R. Msadek, and T.L. Delworth, 2019: Modulation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss by Atmospheric Teleconnections from Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. J. Climate, 32, 1419–1441, https://doi.org/10.1175/ JCLI-D-18-0307.1

2018

Bushuk M., R. Msadek, M. Winton, G. Vecchi, X. Yang, A. Rosati, and R. Gudge, 2018 : Regional Arctic sea ice prediction : potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill, Clim. Dyn., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4288-y

Small J., R. Msadek, Y.-O. Kwon, J. Booth, and C. Zarzycki, 2018 : Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two sets of global climate model experiments, Clim. Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4237-9

Krishnamurthy L., A. G. Muñoz, G. A. Vecchi , R. Msadek, A. T. Wittenberg, B. Stern, R. Gudgel. and F. Zeng, 2018: Assessment of summer rainfall forecast skill in the Intra_Americas in GFDL high and low-resolution models. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4234-z

Ruprich-Robert Y., T. Delworth, R. Msadek. F. Castruccio, S. Yeager, and G. Danabasoglu, 2018 : Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal variability on North American Summer climate and heat waves, Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0270.1

Mavilia, I., A. Bellucci, P. J. Athanasiadis, S. Gualsi, R. Msadek, Y. Ruprich-Robert, 2018: On the spectral characteristics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in an ensemble of multi-century simulations, Clim. Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4093-7

2017

Ruprich-Robert Y. and R. Msadek, 2017 : Global impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability during the boreal winter, CLIVAR Exchanges, Vol 25, No. 1, doi: 10.22498/pages.25.1.7

Bushuk, M., R. Msadek, M. Winton, G. A. Vecchi, R. Gudgel, A. Rosati, and X. Yang, 2017: Skillful regional prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 4953-4964, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073155

Ruprich-Robert Y., R. Msadek, F. Castruccio. S. Yeager, T. Delworth, G. Danabasoglu, 2017: Assessing the climate impacts of the observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 global coupled models, Journal of Climate, 30, pp 2785-2800, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0127.1

Booth J. F., Y-O. Kwon, S. Ko, R. J. Small, R. Msadek, 2017: Spatial pattern and intensity of the surface storm tracks in CMIP5 models, Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0228.1

Garcia-Serrano, J., C. Frankignoul, M. P. King, A. Arribas, Y. Gao, V. Guemas, D. Matei, R. Msadek, W. Park, E. Sanchez-Gomez, 2017: Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate, Clim. Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3

Bushuk, M., R. Msadek, M. Winton, G. Vecchi, R. Gudgel, A. Rosati, X. Yang, 2017: Summer enhancement of Arctic sea ice volume anomalies in the September ice zone, Journal of Climate, 30, pp 2341-2362, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0470.1

Tommasi et al., 2017: Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: the role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts, Progress in Oceanography, 152, pp 15-49, DOI : 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011

Chevallier, M., Smith, G. C., Dupont, F., Lemieux, J. -F., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Hernandez, F., Msadek, R., Peterson, K. A., Storto, A., Toyoda, T., Valdivieso, M., Vernieres, G., Zuo, H., Balmaseda, M. A., Chang, Y. -S., Ferry, N., Garric, G., Haines, K., Keeley, S., Kovach, R., Kuragano, T., Masina, S., Tang, Y., Tsujino, H. and Wang, X., 2017 : Intercomparison of the Arctic sea ice cover in global ocean-sea ice reanalyses from the ORA-IP project, Clim. Dynamics, 49 (3), pp1107-1136, issn=1432-0894, doi=10.1007/s00382-016-2985-y

2016

Day, J. J., Tietsche, S., Collins, M., Goessling, H. F., Guemas, V., Guillory, A., Hurlin, W. J., Ishii, M., Keeley, S. P. E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Sigmond, M., Tatebe, H., and Hawkins,E.: The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1, 2016 : Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2255-2270, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-2255-2016

Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Msadek, R., Mueller, W. A., Taylor, K. E., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y. and Eade, R., 2016: The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6, Geoscientific Model Development, 9, pp. 3751–3777, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016

Krishnamurthy, L., Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Murakami, H., Wittenberg, A. and Zeng, F. , 2016 : Impact of Strong ENSO on Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Climate Model in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. Journal of Climate, 29 (7), pp. 2375-2394, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0468.1

2015

Yang, X., Vecchi, G. A., Gudgel, R. G., Delworth, T. L., Zhang, S., Rosati, A., Jia, L., Stern, W. F., Wittenberg, A. T., Kapnick, S. B., Msadek, R., Underwood, S. D., Zeng, F., Anderson, W. and Balaji, V. , 2015 : Seasonal Predictability of Extratropical Storm Tracks in GFDL's High-Resolution Climate Prediction Model, Journal of Climate, 28 (9), pp. 3592-3611, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00517.1

Krishnamurthy, L., Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Wittenberg, A., Delworth, T. L. and Zeng, F. , 2015: The seasonality of the great plains Low-Level Jet and ENSO Relationship, Journal of Climate, 28 (11), pp. 4525-4544, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00590.1

Perez R., C., Baringer, M. O., Dong, S., Garzoli, S., Goes, M., Goni, G., Lumpkin, R., Meinen, C. S., Msadek, R. and Rivero, U. , 2015 : Measuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Marine Technology Society Journal, 49 (2), pp. 167-177, doi:10.4031/MTSJ.49.2.14

Jia, L., X. Yang, G. A. Vecchi, R. G. Gudgel, T.L.Delworth, T. Rosati, W. Stern, A. Wittenberg, L. Krishnamurthy, S. Zhang, R. Msadek, S. Kapnick, S. Underwood, F. Zeng, W. Anderson,V. Balaji, K. Dixon , 2015: Improved Seasonal Prediction of Temperature and Precipitation over Land in a High-resolution GFDL Climate Model, J. Climate. Vol 28, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00112.1

Msadek, R., Vecchi, G. A. and Knutson, T. R.. , 2015 : North Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Past, Present and Future. Book chapter in: Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond. World Scientific. 6, 18, p. 285-301

Keenlyside, N. S., Ba, J., Mecking, J., Omrani, N., Latif, M., Zhang, R. and Msadek, R.. , 2015: Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond. Book Chapter in: North Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability: Mechanisms and Predictability. World Scientific., 9, p. 141-157

2014

Carton J., S. A. Cunningham, E. E. Frajka-Williams, Y.-O. Kwon, D. P. Marshall, R. Msadek , 2014: The Atlantic Overturning Circulation: More evidence of variability and links to climate, BAMS, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00234.1

Meehl G. A., L. Goddard, B. Kirtman, G. Branstator, G Danabasoglu, E. Hawkins, A. Kumar, A. Rosati, D. Smith, R. Sutton, G. Boer, R. Burgman, C. Cassou, S. Corti, A. Karspeck, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, D. Matei, J. Mignot, R. Msadek, A. Navarra, H. Pohlmann, M. Rienecker, E. Schneider, C. Tebaldi, H. Teng, G.-J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, and S. Yeager, 2014: Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches, BAMS, 95, 243–267

Tietsche, S., Day, J. J., Guemas, V., Hurlin, W. J., Keelay, S. P. E., Matei, D., Msadek, R., Collins, M. and Hawkins, E., 2014: Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models, Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (3), pp. 1035-1043, ISSN 1944-8007, doi:10.1002/2013GL058755

Vecchi, G. A., Delworth, T. L., Gudgel, R. G., Kapnick, S. B., Rosati, A. T., Wittenberg, A. T., Zeng, F., Anderson, W., Balaji, V., Dixon, K., Jia, L., Kim, H. S., Krishnamurthy, L., Msadek, R., Stern, W. F., Underwood, S. D., Villarini, G., Yang, X. and Zhang, S. , 2014: On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity, Journal of Climate, 27 (21), pp. 7994-8016, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1

Msadek, R., Vecchi, G. A., Winton, M. and Gudgel, R. G. , 2014: Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent, Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (14), pp. 5208-5215, ISSN 1944-8007, doi:10.1002/2014GL060799

Msadek, R., Delworth, T. L., Rosati, A. T., Anderson, W., Vecchi, G. A., Chang, Y. -S., Dixon, K., Gudgel, R. G., Stern, W. F., Wittenberg, A., Yang, X., Zeng, F., Zhang, R. and Zhang, S. , 2014: Predicting a Decadal Shift in North Atlantic Climate Variability Using the GFDL Forecast System, Journal of Climate, 27 (17), pp. 6472-6496, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00476.1

Deshayes, J., Curry, R. and Msadek, R. , 2014: CMIP5 model inter-comparison of freshwater budget and circulationin the North Atlantic, Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00700.1

Gnanadesikan, A., Dunne, J. P. and Msadek, R. , 2014: Connecting Atlantic temperature variability and biological cycling in two earth system models, Journal of Marine Systems, pp. 39-54, ISSN 0924-7963, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.10.003

2013

Msadek, R., Johns, W. E., Yeager, S. G., andT. Delworth, D. G. L. and Rosati, A. , 2013: The Atlantic Meridional Heat Transport at 26.5ºN and Its Relationship with the MOC in the RAPID Array and the GFDL and NCAR Coupled Models, J. Climate, 26 (12), pp. 4335-4356

Yang, X., Rosati, A., Zhang, S., Delworth, T. L., Gudgel, R. G., Zhang, R., Vecchi, G., Anderson, W., Chang, Y. -S., Delsole, T., Dixon, K., Msadek, R., Stern, W. F. and Wittenberg, A. , 2013: A predictable AMO-like pattern in GFDL's fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system, Journal of Climate, 26, pp. 650-661, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1

Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L., Sutton, R., Hodson, D. L. R., Dixon, K., HELD, I. M., Kushnir, Y., Marshall, J., Ming, Y., Msadek, R., Robson, J., Rosati, A. J., Ting, M. and Vecchi, G. A. , 2013: Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70 (4), pp. 1135-1144, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1

Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Anderson, W., Chang, Y. -S., T.Delworth, Dixon, K., Gudgel, R., Rosati, A., andG. Villarini, S. B., Witternberg, A., Yang, X., Zeng, F. and Zhang, Z. R. S. , 2013: Multiyear predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane frequency:promise and limitations, J. Climate, 26, pp. 5337-5357

Goddard, L., Kumar, A., Solomon, A., Smith, D., Boer, G. J., Gonzalez, P., Mason, S., Kirtman, B., Msadek, R., Sutton, R., Hawkins, E., Fricker, T., Kharin, S., Merryfield, W., Hegerl, G., Ferro, C., Stephenson, D., Meehl, G. A., Stockdale, T., Burgman, R., Greene, A., Kushnir, Y., Newman, M., Carton, J., Fukumori, I., Vimont, D. and Delworth, T. , 2013: A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments, Climate Dynamics, 40, pp. 245-272, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

2012

Vecchi, G. A., Msadek, R., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. W., Guilyardi, E., Hawkins, E., Karspeck, A., Mignot, J., Robson, J., Rosati, A. and Zhang, R. , 2012: Comment on Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5ºN, Science, 338 (6107), pp. 604-604, doi:10.1126/science.1222566

2011

Zhang, D., Msadek, R., McPhaden, M. J. and Delworth, T., 2011: Multidecadal variability of the North Brazil Current and its connection to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, 116(C4), doi:10.1029/2010JC006812

Msadek, R., Frankignoul, C. and Li, Z. X. , 2011: Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability: a model study, Climate Dynamics, 36: 1255, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0958-0

2010

Msadek, R.,K. W. Dixon, T. L. Delworth, and W. Hurlin, 2010: Assessingthe predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulationand associated fingerprints,Geophys. Res. Lett.,37, L19608,doi:10.1029/2010GL044517

Msadek R. and C. Frankignoul , 2009: Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 33(1), 45-62, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0452-0